I was once part of a group of readers who would critique play submissions with the goal of narrowing them down to five pieces that would eventually be performed. During one of our sessions, a fellow reader scoffed at the “predictability” of one particular play. Now, I was there to judge the plays, not the critiques. But, if I had been able to throw in my two cents at that moment, I would have insisted that the group take the concept of predictability with a grain of salt. While there is a fine line that certainly gets crossed from time to time (say, knowing who the “surprise” villain is and what they did by page thirty-seven), I do not believe predictability is a bad thing in storytelling. As a matter of fact, I’d say it’s actually a sign of good writing.
Let me give you an example. And be aware: while it is not a plot spoiler, it is a character arc spoiler for the streaming series, “The Wheel of Time,” based on the books by Robert Jordan.
At a pivotal moment in the series, the character Moiraine Damodred forcibly separates herself from her companion Lan Mandragoran. To briefly summarize: Moiraine is a powerful mage known as an Aes Sedai; Lan is supposed to be her protector. And one important note about the Aes Sedai is that they literally cannot lie. Because of their power, it is physically impossible for a lie to fall from their lips.
So when Moiraine admits to Lan that she never saw the two of them as equals, it seems like a painful truth that is finally revealed in order to keep him in his place.
But I knew better. Actually, what I knew specifically—after having binged the series up to that point—was this: one, throughout their journey, Moiraine and Lan always had each other’s backs and put extreme trust in each other—and had been doing things that way for years. And, two: while Moiraine cannot lie, she is clearly very practiced at avoiding the truth.
Immediately, I made a prediction. I knew without a doubt that, somewhere down the line, their paths would cross again, and the real truth would come out: she never saw them as equals because she always saw him as the better person.
And wouldn’t you know it? A few episodes later…. 😁😁😁
Predictable? Yes.
Bad writing? No way.
In fact, I would say that it took incredibly great writing, paired with equally great acting*, for me to have pieced that together in a matter of seconds. Knowing what I did about the characters involved, the rules that apply to their world, and the ways they work around those rules, all led me to an undeniable conclusion about what was really going on in that moment, and where it might lead.
Did the predictability spoil my experience with the show? No. It made me feel even more in the moment with Moiraine and Lan, watching the exchange and feeling my heart sink knowing that she was avoiding being honest with him. And it made it that much more important to me when she finally came out and explained herself.
Of course, the opposite is also true: unpredictability does not necessarily make a story good. I’ve had people on a couple separate occasions say this extremely annoying phrase to me: “You’re just mad (AKA, criticizing the writing) because you couldn’t predict [the twist].” I think a YouTuber I used to watch, known as the Nostalgia Critic, put it best: the characters could have “all turned into snowmen of George Takei” and I wouldn’t have been able to predict that. But that doesn’t make it good writing.
Does the twist flow with the plot? Does it make sense for the characters to end up where they are? Did the writing set up various clues throughout the story that made you either say to yourself, “Ohhhhhh, I know what’s coming,” or, “Ohhhhhh, I should have seen that coming?”
There is a fine line for what constitutes the type of “obviousness,” or lack thereof, that should be sneered at and the type that should be applauded. So, maybe the next time something in a story line feels predictable to you, ask yourself this question: am I predicting the outcome because several details in the story so far have been pointing me in that direction, or is it because I have seen this scenario a million times before?
Night Owls, which stories gave you perfectly fitting twists and turns? Which stories were predictable in a good way, and which stories were predictable in a bad way?
*Oh Rosamund Pike, how I adore you…
